Parlays on prediction markets: how Kalshi Combos and Novig parlays work
A prediction market parlay is a single contract that pays $1 only if every leg wins. Kalshi calls them Combos; Novig calls them parlays. Both price them by asking liquidity providers for a quote, and a Novig parlay can't be sold before it settles.
Key takeaways
- A parlay pays $1 only if every leg wins; its price is roughly the product of the legs' prices, plus a margin.
- Novig allows 2 to 20 legs, including same-game legs, but not two lines of the same kind from one game.
- Novig builds a 0.10 × P × (1 − P) fee into parlay quotes; Kalshi Combo fills aren't guaranteed.
- Parlays are close to half of all contracts traded on Novig.
Parlays are the biggest thing on sports exchanges. On 
Novig, they are close to half of all contracts traded. They work differently from single-game contracts, though, and those differences decide what you pay and what you can do once you're in.
How does a prediction market parlay work?
A parlay is one contract built from several legs, such as three game winners. It pays $1 only if every leg wins. Its fair price is roughly the product of the legs' prices: three teams at 60¢ each make a parlay worth about 0.6 × 0.6 × 0.6 = 21.6¢.
Unlike a single game, a parlay doesn't have a ready-made order book. Both big exchanges price it on request:
- Novig sends your parlay to its liquidity providers in a three-second auction. The lowest price wins, and the winning provider gets a one-second "last look" before the trade executes.
Kalshi calls parlays Combos. Each combo is its own market with its own order book, priced by request for quote. Kalshi notes that fills aren't guaranteed, and a filled combo can't be cancelled.
Why are parlays so popular on exchanges?
Parlays offer big payouts for small stakes, the same reason they dominate sportsbook handle. On Novig their share of volume climbed from about a third in August to about half by October, as football season filled the slate.
Novig volumeParlays' share of all contracts traded on Novig, 7-day rolling
Sports Index
Novig public trade data (data.novig.com), compiled by Sports Index · Data through October 22, 2026See the data
| Week ending | Parlay share |
|---|---|
| Aug 10 | 33.8% |
| Aug 17 | 35.5% |
| Aug 24 | 34.6% |
| Aug 31 | 37.4% |
| Sep 7 | 38.1% |
| Sep 14 | 39.9% |
| Sep 21 | 47.1% |
| Sep 28 | 44.4% |
| Oct 5 | 48.9% |
| Oct 12 | 49.5% |
| Oct 19 | 50.2% |
Can you do same-game parlays?
On Novig, yes, with limits. A parlay can have 2 to 20 legs from any market, including props and futures, pregame or live. Legs from the same game are allowed, except two lines of the same kind (a spread plus a moneyline, two spreads, two totals), the same pairs on first-half lines, and some prop pairs. Legs from different games can't share a team, and a future can only combine with legs from other leagues.
Kalshi lists pre-packaged same-game combos for some college football games alongside build-your-own Combos.
What do parlays cost?
- Novig includes a parlay fee of 0.10 × P × (1 − P) in the quoted price, on top of whatever margin the winning liquidity provider prices in.
- Kalshi prices each combo through its quote process; check the quote against the product of the legs' prices before you accept.
What happens if a leg pushes or is cancelled?
- Novig: a pushed or voided leg settles at its fair value price and the parlay payout is recalculated. Spreads and totals use half-point lines, so pushes are rare.
- Kalshi: if a player in a prop leg never enters the game, that leg settles at its last fair price; the combo isn't voided. The payout is the product of the legs' settlement values, up to $1, and any leg at $0 makes the combo pay $0.
Can you sell a parlay early?
Not on Novig: parlays can't be sold or cancelled once filled. A Kalshi combo also can't be cancelled after it fills. If you want the option to get out, stick to straight positions.
When does a parlay pay out?
Kalshi combos settle 1 to 12 hours after the last leg resolves. Novig settles contracts automatically from official results, typically within about 30 minutes.
Frequently asked questions
Can you parlay on Kalshi?
Yes. Kalshi calls them Combos. Each combo is its own market priced by request for quote, pays the product of its legs up to $1, and settles 1 to 12 hours after the last leg resolves.
Can you do same-game parlays on Novig?
Yes, with limits. Novig allows same-game legs but not two lines of the same kind from one game, such as a spread and a moneyline.
What happens if a parlay leg pushes?
On Novig, a pushed or voided leg settles at its fair value price and the payout is recalculated. On Kalshi, a player who doesn't play settles that leg at its last fair price; the combo isn't voided.
Sources
- Kalshi Help Center: Combos
- Novig API docs: Parlay eligibility
- Novig Support: How parlay legs settle
- Novig Support: Fees on Novig
- Novig public trade data
Facts that change, such as fees, rules and where each exchange operates, were checked on the date above. Check the exchange's own pages before you trade.
Sports Index Markets Every college football price in one place Novig and Kalshi side by side, with price history, strategies with graded records and the twice-weekly Betting Roundup. Open Markets →Keep reading
Prediction market fees: Kalshi vs. NovigKalshi vs. Novig fees: trading fees by price, maker vs. taker, parlays, deposits and withdrawals, with a fee chart and a worked $100 example.
How Novig worksNovig is a CFTC-regulated sports exchange with no-vig prices. How take and make orders, parlays, selling early, fees and eligibility work.
How Kalshi works for sportsHow to trade sports on Kalshi: Yes and No contracts, prices as probabilities, quick and limit orders, selling early, settlement and deposits.
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