NFL high total overs
FREETake the over when the total is 48 or more. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: NFL high total unders →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- +$467
- Bets
- 25
- Record
- 17–7
- ROI
- +38.9%
- CLV
- −1.2¢
- Max drawdown
- −$102
- Streak
- W1
- Open
- 1
NFL high total overs
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Week 8
UPCOMING
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
QUALIFIES
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
QUALIFIES
Week 7
+96%
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
WON
+96%
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
OPEN+11%
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
QUALIFIES
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
QUALIFIES
Week 6
−22%
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
WON
+96%
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
LOST
−100%
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
WON
+96%
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
LOST
−100%
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
LOST
−100%
Week 5
+31%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
LOST
−100%
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
WON
+96%
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
WON
+96%
Week 4
+31%
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
WON
+96%
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
LOST
−100%
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
WON
+96%
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
LOST
−100%
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
WON
+96%
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
WON
+96%
Week 3
+47%
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
LOST
−100%
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
WON
+96%
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
WON
+96%
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
WON
+96%
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Total | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills |
Over 53.5 | QUALIFIES | 53¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys |
Over 51.5 | QUALIFIES | 54¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | New England Patriots at Chicago Bears |
Over 50.5 | 54 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons |
Over 49.5 | OPEN | 52¢ | — | +11% | +0.11u | |
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions |
Over 53.5 | QUALIFIES | 57¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders |
Over 48.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons |
Over 50.5 | 54 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 6 | Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams |
Over 51.5 | 34 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders |
Over 54.5 | 63 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 6 | Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers |
Over 54.5 | 36 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers |
Over 51.5 | 40 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys |
Over 49.5 | 40 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals |
Over 55.5 | 66 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 5 | Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams |
Over 55.5 | 71 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 4 | Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans |
Over 48.5 | 64 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals |
Over 51.5 | 39 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills |
Over 49.5 | 55 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers |
Over 48.5 | 38 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers |
Over 52.5 | 58 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 4 | Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints |
Over 48.5 | 69 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 3 | Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills |
Over 50.5 | 40 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | New York Jets at Detroit Lions |
Over 49.5 | 55 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 3 | Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers |
Over 48.5 | 66 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 3 | Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys |
Over 54.5 | 65 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills |
Over 54.5 | 72 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 2 | Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys |
Over 51.5 | 57 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 1 |  Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts |
Over 48.5 | 64 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 1 | New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions |
Over 49.5 | 61 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals |
Over 50.5 | 60 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 7–17
- P&L
- −$486
- ROI
- −40.5%
- Bets
- 24
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, NFL high total unders →. Estimated at 1 − price: these bets were placed before the other side's price was recorded.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded betsSmall samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line0 of 24 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 25The numberBeat by 25
WonLostInside 3 points: 0 won, 0 lost
By total
TotalBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 41
—
—
—
—
41–44.5
—
—
—
—
45–47.5
—
—
—
—
48 and up
24
17–7
71%
+39%
+9.34
Grouped by the total the bet took.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
—
—
—
—
45–49¢
—
—
—
—
50–54¢
24
17–7
71%
+39%
+9.34
55¢ and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
—
—
—
—
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
—
—
—
—
Saturday 7 PM or later
—
—
—
—
Not a Saturday
24
17–7
71%
+39%
+9.34
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
—
—
—
—
Even with the close
—
—
—
—
Worse than the close
—
—
—
—
No close
24
17–7
71%
+39%
+9.34
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
National Football Conference
19
14–5
74%
+44%
+8.45
American Football Conference
13
10–3
77%
+51%
+6.61
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Detroit Lions
5
5–0
100%
+96%
+4.80
Buffalo Bills
5
4–1
80%
+57%
+2.84
Atlanta Falcons
2
2–0
100%
+96%
+1.92
Baltimore Ravens
2
2–0
100%
+96%
+1.92
Chicago Bears
2
2–0
100%
+96%
+1.92
New England Patriots
2
2–0
100%
+96%
+1.92
New Orleans Saints
2
2–0
100%
+96%
+1.92
Carolina Panthers
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Houston Texans
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Indianapolis Colts
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Las Vegas Raiders
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
New York Jets
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Arizona Cardinals
3
2–1
67%
+31%
+0.92
Dallas Cowboys
5
3–2
60%
+18%
+0.88
Cincinnati Bengals
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Los Angeles Rams
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Washington Commanders
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Denver Broncos
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Green Bay Packers
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Jacksonville Jaguars
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Los Angeles Chargers
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
San Francisco 49ers
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.04
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The Novig total is 48 or more, any game.
- 2
Bet
Over.
Full-game total, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before kickoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
NFL regular season, on Novig.
History
Live from October 25, 2026. Before then, a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on Novig's lines where Sports Index kept them and DraftKings' closing lines otherwise, with asks estimated, graded on the final score.
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