Introducing the Sports Index Betting Roundup

The Sports Index Betting Roundup is our weekly look at the betting side of the biggest games in sports.

I'm Ben Jochem, and I built Sports Index. I'm an avid sports fan with a background in quantitative finance (Master's in Quantitative Finance from Fordham), and the roundup is where I apply the systematic strategies used in financial markets to sports betting markets.

My research and the roundup are built on two ideas:

• Betting deserves the same rigor as any other market. Consistent data, fixed rules and an honest record of every result, including the bad weeks.
• Betting is still a fan's game. Some of the best reads come from watching the games, not just the numbers.

That's the whole idea: numbers you can check, rules that don't change when they lose, and a fan's read on the games behind them. Each week we'll show our work.

What's in each issue

Every issue follows the same three parts, so you always know where to look. And every issue is about the biggest games in sports, whatever sport is in season, so the roundup covers the games most people are watching and betting on that week.

01The weekend in betting

The weekend's biggest games, recapped from the betting side. How favorites and underdogs did against the spread, how the totals landed, the biggest upsets and how likely the market thought they were before kickoff, and how the marquee games finished against their closing numbers. Plus the storylines the numbers alone don't tell.

02The Strategy Scorecard

Sports Index tracks a set of fixed betting rules, like "take the over in Big 12 conference games" or "take the home team when it gets 14 or more points." Each one places a paper bet on every game it qualifies for, at the market price. Every week we rank them all, dig into the best and worst performers, and pull out what the results actually say.

03This week's slate

Where the strategies are headed next: the upcoming games each featured rule qualifies for, at current prices, before kickoff.

How we keep score

Sports Index shows sportsbook lines because they're the numbers most fans know, and the weekend recap grades games against them. But our strategies, and the way we score them, run on prediction markets: exchanges like Novig and Kalshi, where you buy and sell contracts on an outcome with other bettors instead of placing a bet with a house.

01Why prediction markets

We think prediction markets are the better place to apply systematic sports betting strategies, for three reasons:

• You trade with other bettors, not against the house. A prediction market is a two-sided exchange: you buy and sell contracts on an outcome with other users, and the platform matches orders and earns a small trading fee. A sportsbook is the other side of your bet, setting the odds and profiting when you lose.
• The costs are lower, and you can see them. A sportsbook builds its margin, the vig, into the odds. At a standard −110 line that's about 4.5%, and you have to win 52.4% of your bets just to break even. An exchange charges a small, explicit fee instead, so the price is the market's own estimate of the probability, and the bar to break even is lower.
• You can get out at the market price. On an exchange you can sell a contract back to the market at its current price at any point before the game ends. A sportsbook's early cash-out pays a price the book sets, with its margin built in.

02The scoring rules

To make every strategy comparable, we track each one the same way: a $1,000 paper account, $50 on every bet. Every issue's figures are frozen when it's published, with its data cutoff and full methodology.

03How to read a strategy chart

Every strategy has an account chart like this one: Big home dogs during Week 7, from the first issue. Step through it, or let it play, and hover the line or a dot to read it.

Big home dogs · Week 7, paper account 1 / 6

1. 01The starting lineEvery strategy starts with a $1,000 paper account. The dashed line marks it: above it the strategy is up, below it down.
2. 02A bet goes onEach ring is a bet placed before kickoff at the Novig price, $50 a bet. This rule placed eight on Saturday, October 17, from noon to 9:35 PM. Rings stack when bets go on together.
3. 03Marked to marketWhile a game is on, every open bet is valued at the latest Novig price, so the account moves with the games. Here it swung between $944.65 and $1,129.10 before the first bets were graded.
4. 04Marked vs settledSettled counts only graded bets, so it moves in steps, once per final. Marked to market adds what the open bets are worth right now. Switch between them above the chart.
5. 05A bet is gradedWhen a game ends the bet settles: a green dot for a win, red for a loss. Six of these eight won. Hover a dot for the game, the pick and the price.
6. 06Where it standsThe last point is the account now: $1,157.72, up $157.72 on eight $50 bets.

One sport at a time

We're starting with college football, so the first issues are titled by week: Betting Roundup: CFB Week 7. When the season ends, the roundup doesn't. It moves to the biggest sport in season next, with the same format and the same scoring, and every issue's title says which sport and which week it covers. Each issue comes out once the weekend's games are graded.

Common questions

Thanks for reading. See you after the weekend.

— Ben

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Paper results for research and education, not betting advice or a recommendation to trade. No real money was wagered and past results do not predict future ones. Sports Index is not a sportsbook or exchange. Prediction markets and sports betting are for adults 18 and over where legal. If gambling stops being fun, call 1-800-GAMBLER.