How to read prediction market odds: cents, probability and American odds
A price of 62¢ means a 62% implied chance, which equals about -163 in American odds. Divide 100 by the price to get the decimal odds, and subtract the price from $1 to get your profit per contract.
Key takeaways
- Price in cents = implied probability: 25¢ is 25%, 75¢ is 75%.
- Under 50¢, American odds are positive: (100 − price) ÷ price × 100. 25¢ is +300.
- Over 50¢, they are negative: price ÷ (100 − price) × 100. 75¢ is −300.
- Profit per contract is $1 minus the price, before fees.
Sportsbooks quote American odds like -150 or +130. Prediction markets quote prices in cents. They describe the same thing, the chance an outcome happens and what you get paid if it does, so you can convert one into the other in a few seconds.
What does a price in cents mean?
Every contract pays $1 if its outcome happens. So the price is both what you pay and the market's implied probability:
- A team at 25¢ has about a 25% chance. You risk 25¢ to win 75¢.
- A team at 50¢ is a coin flip. You risk 50¢ to win 50¢.
- A team at 80¢ has about an 80% chance. You risk 80¢ to win 20¢.
Your profit per contract is always $1 minus the price, before fees.
How do you convert cents to American odds?
Use the price in cents, P:
- Under 50¢ (underdog): American odds = +(100 − P) ÷ P × 100. For 40¢: 60 ÷ 40 × 100 = +150.
- Over 50¢ (favorite): American odds = −P ÷ (100 − P) × 100. For 60¢: 60 ÷ 40 × 100 = −150.
- Exactly 50¢: even money, +100.
Going the other way, from American odds to cents:
- Positive odds (+X): price = 100 ÷ (X + 100). +300 is 100 ÷ 400 = 25¢.
- Negative odds (−X): price = X ÷ (X + 100). −300 is 300 ÷ 400 = 75¢.
Odds converter
- Implied probability
- 62.0%
- $100 buys
- 161 contracts
- Pays if it wins
- $161 ($61.18 profit)
- Break-even win rate
- 62.0%
For the full 1¢ to 99¢ table and fee-adjusted odds, use the prediction market odds converter.
Price, probability and odds at a glance
Sports Index
See the data
| Price | Implied probability | American odds | Profit on $100 if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 5% | +1900 | $1,900 |
| 10¢ | 10% | +900 | $900 |
| 20¢ | 20% | +400 | $400 |
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 | $300 |
| 33¢ | 33% | +203 | $203 |
| 40¢ | 40% | +150 | $150 |
| 45¢ | 45% | +122 | $122 |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 | $100 |
| 55¢ | 55% | -122 | $82 |
| 60¢ | 60% | -150 | $67 |
| 67¢ | 67% | -203 | $49 |
| 75¢ | 75% | -300 | $33 |
| 80¢ | 80% | -400 | $25 |
| 90¢ | 90% | -900 | $11 |
| 95¢ | 95% | -1900 | $5 |
Why do Yes and No add up to a little more than $1?
On 
Kalshi, every market has a Yes side and a No side. In a perfectly tight market a 60¢ Yes means a 40¢ No. In practice the best price to buy Yes and the best price to buy No add up to slightly more than $1. That gap is the bid-ask spread: the difference between what buyers will pay and sellers will accept. It isn't a house margin, and on busy markets it is usually a cent or two.
Is the price the true probability?
It's the market's estimate, set by people trading real money, which makes it a strong one. It isn't a guarantee: prices move with injury news and money coming in, and the last price before kickoff is usually the market's best guess. Comparing the price you paid with that closing price is how you measure whether you are getting good numbers; see closing line value.
Frequently asked questions
How do I convert a prediction market price to American odds?
If the price is under 50¢, American odds are +(100 − price) ÷ price × 100, so 40¢ is +150. If it is over 50¢, they are −price ÷ (100 − price) × 100, so 60¢ is −150. 50¢ is even money (+100).
What is the implied probability of a 30¢ contract?
30%. A contract price in cents is the market's implied probability that the outcome happens.
Why do Yes and No prices add up to more than $1?
The best Yes ask and the best No ask together usually come to a little over $1. That gap is the spread between buyers and sellers, not a house margin.
Sources
Facts that change, such as fees, rules and where each exchange operates, were checked on the date above. Check the exchange's own pages before you trade.
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Closing line value (CLV)Closing line value compares your price with the last price before kickoff. Why CLV beats win rate as a test of a bet, and how to track it.
Sports Index publishes research and paper picks; it is not a sportsbook or an exchange and takes no bets. Trading on prediction markets risks real money. You must meet the exchange's age requirement and be in an eligible state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.