What are sports prediction markets, and how do they work?
A sports prediction market is an exchange where you buy and sell contracts on a game's outcome. Each contract pays $1 if it happens and $0 if it doesn't, so a price of 62¢ means the market gives that outcome about a 62% chance.
Key takeaways
- Every contract pays $1 if the outcome happens and $0 if it doesn't. The price in cents is the market's probability.
- You trade against other people, not a sportsbook, and you can sell before the game ends.
- Kalshi and Novig are the two main U.S. sports exchanges; both are regulated by the CFTC as designated contract markets.
- Sports are the biggest category by far: about 68% of Kalshi's volume in March 2026, and football is the largest single sport on Novig.
If you have bet on a game at a sportsbook, you already understand most of a prediction market. You still pick a side and you still win or lose on the result. What changes is who you trade with, how the price is set and what you can do before the game ends.
How does a sports prediction market work?
Every market is a question with a yes-or-no answer, such as "Will Texas beat Oklahoma?" The exchange lists contracts on each answer. A contract pays $1 if its answer turns out true and $0 if it doesn't.
Contracts trade between $0.01 and $0.99. The price is set by traders: buyers post what they will pay and sellers post what they will accept, and a trade happens when the two meet. 
Kalshi describes it this way: if the market thinks there's a 70% chance of an outcome, "Yes" trades near 70¢ and "No" near 30¢, and together the two sides fund the $1 payout.
- Buy at 62¢, team wins: you collect $1, a 38¢ profit per contract before fees.
- Buy at 62¢, team loses: the contract pays $0 and you lose your 62¢.
- Buy at 62¢, sell at 75¢ before the end: you keep the 13¢ difference whatever happens next.
What does the price mean?
The price in cents is the market's implied probability. A team at 62¢ has, in the market's view, about a 62% chance to win. That makes prices easy to compare with your own view: if you think the team wins 70% of the time, 62¢ is a good price; if you think 55%, it isn't.
You can convert any price into the American odds a sportsbook would show. Below 50¢ the odds are positive (25¢ is +300), and above 50¢ they are negative (75¢ is −300). Our guide to reading prediction market odds has the formulas and a converter.
Sports Index
See the data
| Price | Implied probability | American odds | Profit on $100 if it wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5¢ | 5% | +1900 | $1,900 |
| 10¢ | 10% | +900 | $900 |
| 20¢ | 20% | +400 | $400 |
| 25¢ | 25% | +300 | $300 |
| 33¢ | 33% | +203 | $203 |
| 40¢ | 40% | +150 | $150 |
| 45¢ | 45% | +122 | $122 |
| 50¢ | 50% | +100 | $100 |
| 55¢ | 55% | -122 | $82 |
| 60¢ | 60% | -150 | $67 |
| 67¢ | 67% | -203 | $49 |
| 75¢ | 75% | -300 | $33 |
| 80¢ | 80% | -400 | $25 |
| 90¢ | 90% | -900 | $11 |
| 95¢ | 95% | -1900 | $5 |
What can you trade?
The main U.S. sports exchanges list the same kinds of markets a sportsbook does:
- Game winner (moneyline): which team wins, overtime included.
- Spreads and totals: whether a team covers a point spread, and whether combined points go over or under a number.
- Props and parts of games: first-half lines, team totals and, in some leagues, player stats.
- Futures: season-long questions such as the national champion or the Heisman.
- Parlays: one contract that pays only if several legs all win. Kalshi calls them Combos. See our parlay guide.
Where does the volume go?
Sports are the biggest category on prediction markets. Blockworks Research estimated sports at about 68% of Kalshi's volume in March 2026. On 
Novig, which only lists sports, parlays and football lead every other category in its public trade data.
NovigShare of contracts traded by sport, last 30 days
Sports Index
Novig public trade data (data.novig.com), compiled by Sports Index · Data through October 22, 2026See the data
| Sport | Contracts traded | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Parlays (all sports) | $1.3B | 48.9% |
| Football | $819M | 30.9% |
| Baseball | $197M | 7.4% |
| Tennis | $122M | 4.6% |
| Basketball | $95.5M | 3.6% |
| Ice Hockey | $79.2M | 3.0% |
| Soccer | $28.3M | 1.1% |
| Mixed Martial Arts | $13.2M | 0.5% |
Who runs the U.S. sports exchanges?
Two exchanges carry most U.S. sports volume, and both are regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as designated contract markets:
- Kalshi was designated in November 2020 and lists sports alongside economics, politics and other categories. See how Kalshi works.
- Novig was designated on June 16, 2026, launched its regulated exchange nationwide on August 4, 2026 and lists sports only. See how Novig works.
Federal regulation is why these exchanges reach states without legal sportsbooks. Several states dispute that in court; our guide to where you can trade covers the current picture.
How is it different from a sportsbook?
At a sportsbook you bet against the house at odds it sets, with its margin (the vig) built in. On an exchange you trade with other people, pay a trading fee instead of vig (Novig charges none on pregame straight trades), can set your own price with a limit order, and can sell before the game ends. Our side-by-side comparison goes through each difference.
Frequently asked questions
Are sports prediction markets the same as sports betting?
They let you take a side on the same games, but the structure is different. You buy a contract from another trader on a federally regulated exchange instead of placing a bet with a sportsbook, and you can sell the contract before the game ends.
How do you make money on a prediction market?
You buy a contract below $1 and it pays $1 if the outcome happens. Buy a team at 40¢ and you make 60¢ per contract if it wins. You can also sell early if the price rises.
Which prediction markets offer sports?
In the U.S., Kalshi and Novig are the two biggest sports exchanges. Both are CFTC-designated contract markets that list college football, NFL, NBA and other leagues.
What does a price of 70¢ mean?
The market thinks the outcome has about a 70% chance. You pay 70¢ and get $1 back if it happens, a 30¢ profit before fees.
Sources
- Kalshi Help Center: How are prices determined?
- Kalshi: Football game contract terms
- Novig Support: What is Novig?
- CFTC press release 8302-20: Kalshi designated a contract market
- CFTC: Order designating Ludlow Exchange (Novig) a contract market
- Blockworks Research: How Kalshi is reshaping sports markets
- Novig public trade data
Facts that change, such as fees, rules and where each exchange operates, were checked on the date above. Check the exchange's own pages before you trade.
Sports Index Markets Every college football price in one place Novig and Kalshi side by side, with price history, strategies with graded records and the twice-weekly Betting Roundup. Open Markets →Keep reading
Prediction markets vs. sportsbooksPrediction markets vs. sportsbooks: who sets the price, fees vs. vig, limits, selling early and legality, compared side by side for sports bettors.
How to read prediction market oddsA prediction market price in cents is an implied probability. Convert any price to American odds and payout with our table, converter and examples.
Novig vs. KalshiNovig vs. Kalshi compared for sports: fees, markets, parlays, age and state availability, selling early and settlement. Which exchange suits which bettor.
Sports Index publishes research and paper picks; it is not a sportsbook or an exchange and takes no bets. Trading on prediction markets risks real money. You must meet the exchange's age requirement and be in an eligible state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.