Volume, liquidity and open interest in sports prediction markets
Volume is how many contracts traded. Open interest is how many are still held. Liquidity is how much you can trade near the current price without moving it. For a bettor, liquidity decides the price you actually get.
Key takeaways
- Volume counts contracts traded; open interest counts contracts still outstanding.
- Liquidity is depth at the current price: a thin market can move several cents on one order.
- Novig volume peaks in the evening, Eastern time, and on Saturdays and Sundays in football season.
- Parlays are close to half of all contracts traded on Novig.
Three numbers describe how busy a market is. They sound alike but answer different questions, and the one that matters most for the price you get is the one exchanges show least clearly.
What is volume?
Volume is how many contracts have traded. Each contract pays $1 at settlement, so volume is often quoted in dollars. 
Novig counts each trade once, on the taker's side. Volume tells you how much interest a market has drawn, not how much you can trade right now.
What is open interest?
Open interest is how many contracts are still held: bought and not yet sold or settled. If you buy 100 contracts from someone opening a new position, open interest rises by 100. If you buy them from someone closing a position, it doesn't change. High open interest means a lot of money is riding on the outcome right now.
What is liquidity?
Liquidity is how much you can trade near the current price without moving it. It lives in the order book: the contracts other traders are offering at each price. A market can have heavy volume but a thin book at the moment you want to trade, which is when one order pushes the price several cents.
- A tight spread (best buy and sell prices a cent apart) and many contracts at each price mean good liquidity.
- A wide spread, or a few hundred contracts before the price jumps, means poor liquidity. Use a limit order.
When are sports exchanges busiest?
Novig publishes every day's trades, which lets us see when the money moves. Averaged over the last four weeks of the 2026 football season, volume builds from the morning, bumps at lunchtime and peaks in the evening, Eastern time.
Novig per hour of the day (Eastern), last 28 days
Sports Index
Novig public trade data (data.novig.com), compiled by Sports Index · Data through October 22, 2026See the data
| Hour (ET) | Average contracts |
|---|---|
| 12a | $2.7M |
| 1a | $1.8M |
| 2a | $1.5M |
| 3a | $1.0M |
| 4a | $768K |
| 5a | $705K |
| 6a | $824K |
| 7a | $1.2M |
| 8a | $2.1M |
| 9a | $3.3M |
| 10a | $3.7M |
| 11a | $5.3M |
| 12p | $6.8M |
| 1p | $4.3M |
| 2p | $4.7M |
| 3p | $5.7M |
| 4p | $6.0M |
| 5p | $5.5M |
| 6p | $6.7M |
| 7p | $8.6M |
| 8p | $5.8M |
| 9p | $4.2M |
| 10p | $3.9M |
| 11p | $3.7M |
For college football, Saturday dwarfs every other day; for the NFL, Sunday does, with smaller spikes on Thursday and Monday nights. See Novig college football and Novig NFL for the daily patterns.
Where does the volume go?
Parlays are the single largest category on Novig, close to half of all contracts traded. Football is the largest individual sport.
NovigShare of contracts traded by sport, last 30 days
Sports Index
Novig public trade data (data.novig.com), compiled by Sports Index · Data through October 22, 2026See the data
| Sport | Contracts traded | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Parlays (all sports) | $1.3B | 48.9% |
| Football | $819M | 30.9% |
| Baseball | $197M | 7.4% |
| Tennis | $122M | 4.6% |
| Basketball | $95.5M | 3.6% |
| Ice Hockey | $79.2M | 3.0% |
| Soccer | $28.3M | 1.1% |
| Mixed Martial Arts | $13.2M | 0.5% |
Why does this matter for a bettor?
- Busy markets price better. More traders means the price is more likely to be close to fair, and the spread is tighter.
- Thin markets reward patience. Small-school games and props can move a lot on one order. Post your price and wait.
- Timing helps. Liquidity tends to build toward kickoff and in the big Saturday and Sunday windows; early-week markets can be thinner.
Frequently asked questions
What is open interest in a prediction market?
The number of contracts that have been bought and not yet sold or settled. It shows how much money is riding on the market right now.
Is high volume good for bettors?
Usually. Busy markets tend to have tighter spreads and more depth, so you can trade closer to the fair price.
When are sports prediction markets most liquid?
In our Novig data, volume builds through the afternoon and peaks in the evening Eastern time, with football weekends the busiest days of the week.
Sources
Facts that change, such as fees, rules and where each exchange operates, were checked on the date above. Check the exchange's own pages before you trade.
Sports Index Markets Every college football price in one place Novig and Kalshi side by side, with price history, strategies with graded records and the twice-weekly Betting Roundup. Open Markets →Keep reading
Limit orders vs. market ordersA market order fills now at the best price; a limit order waits for yours. How each works on Kalshi and Novig, and what happens at kickoff.
Parlays and combosHow parlays work on Kalshi (Combos) and Novig: pricing, same-game rules, fees and pushes, and why parlays are nearly half of Novig volume.
Novig college footballNovig college football: moneylines, spreads, totals, first halves and team totals. What traders trade, when volume peaks and how to get better prices.
Sports Index publishes research and paper picks; it is not a sportsbook or an exchange and takes no bets. Trading on prediction markets risks real money. You must meet the exchange's age requirement and be in an eligible state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.