NBA home underdogs
FREETake the home team against the spread whenever it is the underdog. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: NBA road favorites →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- −$254
- Bets
- 11
- Record
- 3–8
- ROI
- −46.3%
- CLV
- +0.0¢
- Max drawdown
- −$301
- Streak
- L2
- Open
- 0
NBA home underdogs
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Other
−46%
Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons
WON
+92%
Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
LOST
−100%
Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets
LOST
−100%
Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans
LOST
−100%
Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets
LOST
−100%
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards
LOST
−100%
Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat
LOST
−100%
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings
WON
+92%
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets
WON
+106%
Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls
LOST
−100%
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks
LOST
−100%
Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz
QUALIFIES
Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets
QUALIFIES
Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings
QUALIFIES
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Margin | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Other | Boston Celtics at Detroit Pistons |
Detroit Pistons +1.5 | Won by 8 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Other | Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs |
San Antonio Spurs +1.5 | Lost by 12 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Other | Charlotte Hornets at Brooklyn Nets |
Brooklyn Nets +1.5 | Lost by 7 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Other | Indiana Pacers at New Orleans Pelicans |
New Orleans Pelicans +2.5 | Lost by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Other | Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Hornets |
Charlotte Hornets +2.5 | Lost by 47 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Other | Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards |
Washington Wizards +9.5 | Lost by 10 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Other | Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat |
Miami Heat +2.5 | Lost by 17 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Other | Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings |
Sacramento Kings +9.5 | Lost by 8 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Other | Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets |
Charlotte Hornets +3.5 | Won by 5 | WON | 48¢ | −2¢ | +106% | +1.06u |
| Other | Washington Wizards at Chicago Bulls |
Chicago Bulls +1.5 | Lost by 4 | LOST | 56¢ | 0¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Other | San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks |
Dallas Mavericks +12.5 | Lost by 16 | LOST | 41¢ | +2¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Other | Los Angeles Lakers at Utah Jazz |
Utah Jazz +6.5 | QUALIFIES | 50¢ | — | |||
| Other | Indiana Pacers at Brooklyn Nets |
Brooklyn Nets +7.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Other | Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings |
Sacramento Kings +3.5 | QUALIFIES | 50¢ | — |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 8–3
- P&L
- +$274
- ROI
- +49.7%
- Bets
- 11
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, NBA road favorites →. Estimated at 1 − price: these bets were placed before the other side's price was recorded.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded betsSmall samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line4 of 11 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 45The numberBeat by 45
WonLostInside 3 points: 1 won, 3 lost
By spread
SpreadBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
4 or less
8
2–6
25%
−50%
−4.01
4.5–7
—
—
—
—
7.5–9.5
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
10 and up
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Grouped by the size of the spread.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
45–49¢
1
1–0
100%
+106%
+1.06
50–54¢
8
2–6
25%
−52%
−4.15
55¢ and up
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
—
—
—
—
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
1
1–0
100%
+106%
+1.06
Saturday 7 PM or later
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Not a Saturday
8
2–6
25%
−52%
−4.15
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Even with the close
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Worse than the close
1
1–0
100%
+106%
+1.06
No close
8
2–6
25%
−52%
−4.15
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Western Conference
4
1–3
25%
−52%
−2.08
Eastern Conference
8
2–6
25%
−50%
−4.01
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Boston Celtics
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Portland Trail Blazers
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Sacramento Kings
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Miami Heat
2
1–1
50%
+3%
+0.06
Detroit Pistons
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Charlotte Hornets
3
1–2
33%
−31%
−0.94
Atlanta Hawks
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Brooklyn Nets
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Chicago Bulls
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Dallas Mavericks
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Indiana Pacers
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
New Orleans Pelicans
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Oklahoma City Thunder
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Toronto Raptors
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
San Antonio Spurs
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Washington Wizards
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The home team is the underdog on the spread, any game.
- 2
Bet
Home team.
Full-game spread, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before tipoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
NBA regular season, on Novig.
History
Live from October 25, 2026. Before then, a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on Novig's lines where Sports Index kept them and DraftKings' closing lines otherwise, with asks estimated, graded on the final score.
No posts about NBA home underdogs yet. Start the thread.
PROSports Index Pro
Follow this strategy with Pro
Pro unlocks every Sports Index strategy. This one is at PnL this season, at $50 a bet.
- Full records and every graded bet, for every Sports Index strategy
- Open positions before kickoff
- An alert for every bet a strategy you follow places, and the Betting Roundup twice a week