NFL high total unders
FREETake the under when the total is 48 or more. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: NFL high total overs →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- −$520
- Bets
- 25
- Record
- 7–17
- ROI
- −43.4%
- CLV
- +0.8¢
- Max drawdown
- −$564
- Streak
- L1
- Open
- 1
NFL high total unders
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Week 8
UPCOMING
Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys
QUALIFIES
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
QUALIFIES
Week 7
−100%
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
LOST
−100%
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
OPEN−29%
Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
QUALIFIES
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions
QUALIFIES
Week 6
+17%
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
LOST
−100%
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
WON
+94%
Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders
LOST
−100%
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
WON
+94%
Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers
WON
+94%
Week 5
−35%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys
WON
+94%
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
LOST
−100%
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
LOST
−100%
Week 4
−35%
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
LOST
−100%
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals
WON
+94%
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
LOST
−100%
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers
WON
+94%
Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers
LOST
−100%
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
LOST
−100%
Week 3
−51%
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
WON
+94%
New York Jets at Detroit Lions
LOST
−100%
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
LOST
−100%
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys
LOST
−100%
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Total | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys |
Under 51.5 | QUALIFIES | 53¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills |
Under 53.5 | QUALIFIES | 53¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | New England Patriots at Chicago Bears |
Under 50.5 | 54 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons |
Under 49.5 | OPEN | 49¢ | — | −29% | −0.29u | |
| Week 7 | Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders |
Under 48.5 | QUALIFIES | 49¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions |
Under 53.5 | QUALIFIES | 44¢ | — | |||
| Week 6 | Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons |
Under 50.5 | 54 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams |
Under 51.5 | 34 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 6 | Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders |
Under 54.5 | 63 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers |
Under 54.5 | 36 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 6 | Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers |
Under 51.5 | 40 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys |
Under 49.5 | 40 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 | Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals |
Under 55.5 | 66 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams |
Under 55.5 | 71 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans |
Under 48.5 | 64 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals |
Under 51.5 | 39 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 4 | New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills |
Under 49.5 | 55 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers |
Under 48.5 | 38 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 4 | Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers |
Under 52.5 | 58 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 4 | Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints |
Under 48.5 | 69 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills |
Under 50.5 | 40 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 | New York Jets at Detroit Lions |
Under 49.5 | 55 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers |
Under 48.5 | 66 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys |
Under 54.5 | 65 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 2 | Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills |
Under 54.5 | 72 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 2 | Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys |
Under 51.5 | 57 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts |
Under 48.5 | 64 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 | New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions |
Under 49.5 | 61 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals |
Under 50.5 | 60 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 17–7
- P&L
- +$552
- ROI
- +46.1%
- Bets
- 24
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, NFL high total overs →. Estimated at 1 − price: these bets were placed before the other side's price was recorded.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded betsSmall samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line0 of 24 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 25The numberBeat by 25
WonLostInside 3 points: 0 won, 0 lost
By total
TotalBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 41
—
—
—
—
41–44.5
—
—
—
—
45–47.5
—
—
—
—
48 and up
24
7–17
29%
−43%
−10.41
Grouped by the total the bet took.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
—
—
—
—
45–49¢
—
—
—
—
50–54¢
24
7–17
29%
−43%
−10.41
55¢ and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
—
—
—
—
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
—
—
—
—
Saturday 7 PM or later
—
—
—
—
Not a Saturday
24
7–17
29%
−43%
−10.41
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
—
—
—
—
Even with the close
—
—
—
—
Worse than the close
—
—
—
—
No close
24
7–17
29%
−43%
−10.41
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
American Football Conference
13
3–10
23%
−55%
−7.17
National Football Conference
19
5–14
26%
−49%
−9.29
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Denver Broncos
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Green Bay Packers
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Jacksonville Jaguars
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Los Angeles Chargers
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
San Francisco 49ers
3
2–1
67%
+29%
+0.88
Cincinnati Bengals
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Los Angeles Rams
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Washington Commanders
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Carolina Panthers
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Houston Texans
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Indianapolis Colts
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Las Vegas Raiders
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
New York Jets
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Arizona Cardinals
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.06
Dallas Cowboys
5
2–3
40%
−22%
−1.12
Atlanta Falcons
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Baltimore Ravens
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Chicago Bears
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
New England Patriots
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
New Orleans Saints
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Buffalo Bills
5
1–4
20%
−61%
−3.06
Detroit Lions
5
0–5
0%
−100%
−5.00
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The Novig total is 48 or more, any game.
- 2
Bet
Under.
Full-game total, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before kickoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
NFL regular season, on Novig.
History
Live from October 25, 2026. Before then, a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on Novig's lines where Sports Index kept them and DraftKings' closing lines otherwise, with asks estimated, graded on the final score.
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