NFL road favorites

FREE

Take the road team against the spread whenever it is favored. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: NFL home underdogs →

Sports Index 0 following

Season PnL: −$134
Bets: 40
Record: 17–19–1
ROI: −7.4%
CLV: −0.1¢
Max drawdown: −$420
Streak: W1
Open: 3

NFL road favorites

Account value

Bets

Open now

All bets

Week	Game	Pick	Margin	Result	Entry	CLV	Return	Units
Week 8 Nov 1	New England Patriots at Miami DolphinsEnters Sun 3:25 PM	New England Patriots −8.5	—	QUALIFIES	53¢	—	—	—
Week 7 Oct 25	Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints	Pittsburgh Steelers −3.5	Won by 6	WON	44¢	0¢	+125%	+1.25u
Week 7 Oct 25	Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore RavensNow 41¢	Cincinnati Bengals −1.5	—	OPEN	56¢	—	−27%	−0.27u
Week 7 Oct 25	Cleveland Browns at Tennessee TitansNow 28¢	Cleveland Browns −1.5	—	OPEN	52¢	—	−46%	−0.46u
Week 7 Oct 25	San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta FalconsNow 56¢	San Francisco 49ers −2.5	—	OPEN	52¢	—	+8%	+0.08u
Week 7 Oct 25	Denver Broncos at Arizona CardinalsEnters Sun 3:05 PM	Denver Broncos −4.5	—	QUALIFIES	50¢	—	—	—
Week 7 Oct 25	Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas RaidersEnters Sun 3:25 PM	Los Angeles Rams −3.5	—	QUALIFIES	48¢	—	—	—
Week 7 Oct 26	Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia EaglesEnters Mon 7:15 PM	Dallas Cowboys −4.5	—	QUALIFIES	50¢	—	—	—
Week 6 Oct 15	Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos	Seattle Seahawks −3	Lost by 3	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 6 Oct 18	Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns	Baltimore Ravens −3	Lost by 3	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 6 Oct 18	Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles	Carolina Panthers −3	Won by 11	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 6 Oct 18	Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears −1.5	Won by 8	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 6 Oct 18	New Orleans Saints at New York Giants	New Orleans Saints −1.5	Won by 7	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 6 Oct 18	Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5	Won by 7	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 6 Oct 18	Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders	Buffalo Bills −5.5	Won by 3	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 6 Oct 18	Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers	Dallas Cowboys −1.5	Lost by 10	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 5 Oct 11	Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins	Cincinnati Bengals −7.5	Won by 7	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 5 Oct 11	Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans	Houston Texans −6.5	Won by 23	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 5 Oct 11	Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints	Minnesota Vikings −2.5	Won by 10	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 5 Oct 11	Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers	Chicago Bears −1.5	Lost by 24	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 5 Oct 11	Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers	Denver Broncos −3	Won by 6	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 5 Oct 11	Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals	Detroit Lions −4.5	Won by 24	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 4 Oct 1	Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers −2.5	Lost by 3	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 4 Oct 4	Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders	Indianapolis Colts −4.5	Won by 17	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 4 Oct 4	Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants	Arizona Cardinals −2.5	Lost by 12	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 4 Oct 4	Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Green Bay Packers −2.5	Won by 3	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 4 Oct 4	Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles	Los Angeles Rams −4.5	Won by 4	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 4 Oct 4	Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders	Kansas City Chiefs −3.5	Won by 3	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 4 Oct 4	Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers	Detroit Lions −3.5	Lost by 6	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 3 Sep 27	Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns	Carolina Panthers −2.5	Lost by 3	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 3 Sep 27	Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers	Cincinnati Bengals −3.5	Lost by 3	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 3 Sep 27	Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts	Houston Texans −1.5	Lost by 2	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 3 Sep 27	Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins	Kansas City Chiefs −10	Won by 14	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 3 Sep 27	Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders	Seattle Seahawks −8.5	Lost by 2	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 3 Sep 27	Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys	Baltimore Ravens −3	Won by 3	PUSH	52¢	—	0%	+0.00u
Week 3 Sep 28	Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears	Philadelphia Eagles −3	Lost by 20	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 2 Sep 20	Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers −2.5	Won by 31	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 2 Sep 20	Green Bay Packers at New York Jets	Green Bay Packers −3.5	Won by 3	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 2 Sep 20	Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans	Philadelphia Eagles −7	Won by 4	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u
Week 2 Sep 20	Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	Seattle Seahawks −3.5	Won by 24	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 1 Sep 13	Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts	Baltimore Ravens −3	Won by 18	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 1 Sep 13	Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans	Buffalo Bills −1.5	Won by 5	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 1 Sep 13	Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears −3	Won by 22	WON	52¢	—	+94%	+0.94u
Week 1 Sep 13	Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants	Dallas Cowboys −3	Lost by 8	LOST	52¢	—	−100%	−1.00u

The other side

Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight

Record: 19–17–1
P&L: +$159
ROI: +8.8%
Bets: 37

As placed −$134Faded +$159

Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, NFL home underdogs →. 1 graded at the other side's recorded Novig price, 36 estimated at 1 − price.

What stands out

Groups with 3+ graded bets

TEAM +104% New Orleans Saints 3–0 · 3 bets TEAM +29% Arizona Cardinals 2–1 · 3 bets TEAM −100% Cleveland Browns 0–3 · 3 bets SPREAD −52% 7–10 1–3 · 4 bets

Small samples. Each one opens its card below.

Close calls

Final against the line

10 of 37 bets landed within 3 points of the number

Missed by 30The numberBeat by 30

WonLostInside 3 points: 3 won, 6 lost

By spread

SpreadBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits

3 or less 22 11–10–1 52% +2% +0.36

3.5–6.5 11 5–6 45% −9% −0.99

7–10 4 1–3 25% −52% −2.06

10.5 and up — — — — —

Grouped by the size of the spread.

By entry price

Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits

Under 45¢ 1 1–0 100% +125% +1.25

45–49¢ — — — — —

50–54¢ 36 16–19–1 46% −11% −3.93

55¢ and up — — — — —

Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.

By kickoff

KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits

Saturday before 3 PM — — — — —

Saturday 3 to 7 PM — — — — —

Saturday 7 PM or later — — — — —

Not a Saturday 37 17–19–1 47% −7% −2.68

Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.

By closing line

Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits

Beat the close — — — — —

Even with the close 1 1–0 100% +125% +1.25

Worse than the close — — — — —

No close 36 16–19–1 46% −11% −3.93

Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.

By conference

ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits

National Football Conference 25 12–12–1 50% −2% −0.39

American Football Conference 20 8–11–1 42% −17% −3.16

A game counts once for each conference in it.

By team

TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits

New Orleans Saints 3 3–0 100% +104% +3.13

Atlanta Falcons 2 2–0 100% +94% +1.88

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 2–0 100% +94% +1.88

Los Angeles Chargers 1 1–0 100% +94% +0.94

Minnesota Vikings 1 1–0 100% +94% +0.94

Arizona Cardinals 3 2–1 67% +29% +0.88

Houston Texans 3 2–1 67% +29% +0.88

Indianapolis Colts 3 2–1 67% +29% +0.88

Carolina Panthers 5 3–2 60% +17% +0.83

Pittsburgh Steelers 4 2–2 50% +5% +0.19

Baltimore Ravens 3 1–1–1 50% −3% −0.06

Buffalo Bills 2 1–1 50% −3% −0.06

Denver Broncos 2 1–1 50% −3% −0.06

Detroit Lions 2 1–1 50% −3% −0.06

Kansas City Chiefs 2 1–1 50% −3% −0.06

Miami Dolphins 2 1–1 50% −3% −0.06

Tennessee Titans 2 1–1 50% −3% −0.06

Washington Commanders 2 1–1 50% −3% −0.06

Chicago Bears 4 2–2 50% −3% −0.12

Los Angeles Rams 1 0–1 0% −100% −1.00

New York Jets 1 0–1 0% −100% −1.00

New York Giants 3 1–2 33% −35% −1.06

Seattle Seahawks 3 1–2 33% −35% −1.06

Dallas Cowboys 3 0–2–1 0% −100% −2.00

Cincinnati Bengals 2 0–2 0% −100% −2.00

Las Vegas Raiders 2 0–2 0% −100% −2.00

Green Bay Packers 4 1–3 25% −52% −2.06

Philadelphia Eagles 4 1–3 25% −52% −2.06

Cleveland Browns 3 0–3 0% −100% −3.00

A game counts for both teams in it.

Latest Top

Posts tagged # NFL road favorites

No posts about NFL road favorites yet. Start the thread.

NFL road favorites

NFL road favorites

Bets

All bets

The other side

What stands out

Close calls

By spread

By entry price

By kickoff

By closing line

By conference

By team

How it bets

Qualifies

Bet

Placed

Stake

Graded

No bet when

League

History

NFL road favorites

BetsHow it's calculated

All bets

The other side

What stands out

Close calls

By spread

By entry price

By kickoff

By closing line

By conference

By team

How it bets

Qualifies

Bet

Placed

Stake

Graded

No bet when

League

History

Bets