College football prediction markets: the complete guide
College football is one of the biggest sports on prediction markets. Kalshi and Novig both list every FBS game's moneyline, spread and total, and prices move with news, injuries and every snap.
Key takeaways
- Both Kalshi and Novig list FBS moneylines, spreads and totals; Kalshi adds more futures and props.
- Football is about a quarter of all contracts traded on Novig, and the share grew through the season.
- Prices move most on injury news and in-game swings; the price before kickoff is the market's best estimate.
- Comparing both exchanges and tracking closing-line value are the two habits that matter most.
College football is one of the biggest sports on prediction markets, and it suits them well: dozens of FBS games most Saturdays, prices that swing on every snap, and enough fan knowledge spread across the country that markets are busy from noon to midnight.
Where can you trade college football?
Two U.S. exchanges carry most of the volume:
Kalshi lists game winners, spreads and totals for FBS games, half and quarter lines, team props, and futures including the national championship, the College Football Playoff, conference champions and the Heisman. See Kalshi college football.
Novig has listed college football since August 14, 2026, with winners, spreads, totals, first-half lines, team totals and futures, and charges no fee on pregame straight trades. See Novig college football.
Not sure which to use? Read Novig vs. Kalshi.
How big is college football on prediction markets?
Football (college and NFL together) is the largest single sport on Novig, and its weekly volume climbed steeply through the 2026 season as the schedule filled out.
Novig, week by weekContracts traded on football (college and NFL) per week, Monday to Sunday
Sports Index
Novig public trade data (data.novig.com), compiled by Sports Index · Data through October 22, 2026See the data
| Week of | Football contracts |
|---|---|
| Aug 3 | $1.2M |
| Aug 10 | $5.8M |
| Aug 17 | $10.3M |
| Aug 24 | $14.6M |
| Aug 31 | $37.6M |
| Sep 7 | $94.9M |
| Sep 14 | $114M |
| Sep 21 | $145M |
| Sep 28 | $176M |
| Oct 5 | $217M |
| Oct 12 | $232M |
On Kalshi, Aldrin Research estimated about $582 million of college football volume over the season's opening four days, as reported by SiGMA.
What do people trade?
The moneyline (who wins) and the spread carry most of the money, with totals a clear third. First-half lines and team totals are small by comparison.
NovigShare of college football contracts by market type, Sep 24 to Oct 22
Sports Index
Novig public trade data (data.novig.com), compiled by Sports Index · Data through October 22, 2026See the data
| Market | Contracts traded | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline (to win) | $140M | 38.2% |
| Spread | $136M | 37.1% |
| Total (over/under) | $83.5M | 22.8% |
| Team total | $2.8M | 0.8% |
| 1st-half spread | $1.7M | 0.5% |
| 1st-half total | $1.1M | 0.3% |
| 1st-half moneyline | $871K | 0.2% |
How do college football prices work?
Each game market pays $1 if your side wins. A team at 72¢ has about a 72% chance in the market's view; buying it risks 72¢ to win 28¢. Convert any price with the odds converter.
Prices move all week: on injury news, weather, betting money and, once the game starts, every score. The last price before kickoff is the market's best estimate, and comparing your price with it, your closing line value, is the best test of your reads.
What does it cost?
- Novig: no fee on pregame straight trades; 0.06 × P × (1 − P) on live taker trades.
- Kalshi: a taker fee reported at 0.07 × P × (1 − P), about 1.75¢ a contract at 50¢, plus maker fees on its college football game, spread and total markets.
See fees compared.
How do college football markets settle?
Both exchanges count overtime for full-game markets, and both settle from official results: Kalshi using information from the NCAA, Novig typically within 30 minutes of the final. Novig's half-point spreads and totals can't push. See settlement rules.
How do you trade college football well?
- Shop both exchanges. Prices are usually close, but fees differ and some games are a few cents apart. See line shopping.
- Use limit orders on thin games. Smaller schools draw less money, so one order can move the price. See limit vs. market orders.
- Follow rules, not hunches. Simple, repeatable strategies are easier to judge. See strategies, tested on exchange prices.
- Track everything: price, size, result and closing price.
- Keep it a budget you can lose. See responsible trading.
Frequently asked questions
Can you bet on college football with prediction markets?
Yes. Kalshi and Novig both list college football game winners, spreads and totals, and you trade them like any other contract that pays $1.
Which is better for college football, Kalshi or Novig?
Novig is cheaper for pregame straight trades and offers half-point lines; Kalshi has more futures and props. Many traders use both and take the better price.
Can you trade college football during the game?
Yes. Both exchanges keep game markets open while the game is played, so prices move with every score. On Novig, live taker trades carry a fee that pregame trades don't.
Sources
- Kalshi: Football game contract terms
- CFTC filing: Novig NCAAF winner contract
- Novig Support: Fees on Novig
- Kalshi Help Center: Fees
- Novig public trade data
- Blockworks Research: How Kalshi is reshaping sports markets
Facts that change, such as fees, rules and where each exchange operates, were checked on the date above. Check the exchange's own pages before you trade.
Sports Index Markets Every college football price in one place Novig and Kalshi side by side, with price history, strategies with graded records and the twice-weekly Betting Roundup. Open Markets →Keep reading
Kalshi college footballKalshi lists FBS games with moneyline, spread and total markets plus Heisman and playoff futures. What is offered, how it settles and how to trade it.
Novig college footballNovig college football: moneylines, spreads, totals, first halves and team totals. What traders trade, when volume peaks and how to get better prices.
College football betting strategies, testedWhich college football betting systems work on prediction markets? Rule-based strategies graded on real Kalshi and Novig prices.
Sports Index publishes research and paper picks; it is not a sportsbook or an exchange and takes no bets. Trading on prediction markets risks real money. You must meet the exchange's age requirement and be in an eligible state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.