Responsible trading on sports prediction markets

Key takeaways

• Set a season budget you can afford to lose and keep it separate from other money.
• Size each position as a small, fixed share of that budget; don't raise it after losses.
• Track every trade, including losses, and judge yourself by closing-line value, not one weekend.
• If it isn't fun anymore, stop. Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER for free, confidential help.

Prediction markets use the language of trading: contracts, positions, order books. That can make them feel like investing. They aren't. Trading on games puts real money at risk on uncertain results, and the habits that keep sports betting healthy apply just as much here.

Set a budget before the season

• Decide how much you can afford to lose over the whole season, and treat it as spent the day you deposit.
• Keep that money separate from rent, bills and savings. Never deposit money you need.
• Don't top up mid-season to win back losses.

Size each position small

A common approach is to risk a fixed, small share of your season budget on each position, for example 1–2%. A bad weekend then costs a few percent, not the season. Raising your size after losses ("chasing") is the fastest way to lose a budget.

Watch out for the exchange-specific traps

• Live trading is fast. In-game prices move on every snap, and it's easy to place far more trades than you planned. Set a limit on live trades per game.
• Parlays are long shots. They pay big because they rarely win. On Novig they can't be sold early. See parlays explained.
• Small prices aren't small risks. A 10¢ contract loses 100% of what you paid if it misses; buying 1,000 of them is a $100 bet.
• "Trade credits" are still money. Promotions can encourage more trading than you intended.

Keep a record

Track every trade: price, size, result and the closing price. Most people overestimate how well they are doing until they write it down. A record also tells you whether you are getting good prices, which matters more than one weekend's results.

Know the warning signs

• Spending more time or money than you planned.
• Chasing losses, or trading to feel better after a bad day.
• Hiding trading from people close to you.
• Borrowing money, or using money meant for bills, to trade.
• Feeling anxious or irritable when you can't trade.

Where to get help

If gambling or trading is causing problems for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER, the National Council on Problem Gambling's helpline. It's free and confidential, and it can connect you with support in your state.

You can also contact your exchange about tools such as deposit limits, cooling-off periods or closing your account.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

1. National Council on Problem Gambling: 1-800-GAMBLER

Facts that change, such as fees, rules and where each exchange operates, were checked on the date above. Check the exchange's own pages before you trade.

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Keep reading

Sports Index publishes research and paper picks; it is not a sportsbook or an exchange and takes no bets. Trading on prediction markets risks real money. You must meet the exchange's age requirement and be in an eligible state. If gambling is a problem for you or someone you know, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.