Big home dogs
FREETake the home team when it is a 14-point underdog or bigger. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: Big road favorites →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- +$326
- Bets
- 27
- Record
- 17–10
- ROI
- +24.1%
- CLV
- −1.3¢
- Max drawdown
- −$186
- Streak
- W2
- Open
- 0
Big home dogs
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Week 8
UPCOMING
Tennessee Tech at The Citadel
QUALIFIES
Tarleton State at West Georgia
QUALIFIES
Monmouth at Hampton
QUALIFIES
Week 7
+39%
McNeese at Northwestern State
WON
+64%
South Dakota State at North Dakota
WON
+92%
Austin Peay at West Georgia
WON
+68%
Louisville at Syracuse
WON
+90%
Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe
LOST
−100%
Ohio at Sacramento State
LOST
−100%
Utah at Colorado
WON
+108%
New Mexico at Hawai'i
WON
+92%
Week 6
+92%
North Dakota at Northern Iowa
WON
+92%
Week 5
−36%
Montana State at Idaho
WON
+92%
Ohio State at Iowa
LOST
−100%
Miami at Clemson
LOST
−100%
Week 3
+42%
Miami at Wake Forest
WON
+212%
Georgia at Arkansas
LOST
−100%
Villanova at Long Island University
WON
+98%
Harvard at New Hampshire
LOST
−100%
Yale at Holy Cross
WON
+87%
USC at Rutgers
WON
+92%
Northern Arizona at Utah Tech
WON
+92%
BYU at Colorado State
LOST
−100%
North Dakota State at Sacramento State
WON
+92%
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Margin | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Tennessee Tech at The Citadel |
The Citadel +17.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Tarleton State at West Georgia |
West Georgia +22.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Monmouth at Hampton |
Hampton +24.5 | QUALIFIES | 56¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | McNeese at Northwestern State |
Northwestern State +21.5 | Lost by 3 | WON | 61¢ | −12¢ | +64% | +0.64u |
| Week 7 | South Dakota State at North Dakota |
North Dakota +14.5 | Won by 11 | WON | 52¢ | −1¢ | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 7 | Austin Peay at West Georgia |
West Georgia +18.5 | Lost by 14 | WON | 60¢ | −3¢ | +68% | +0.68u |
| Week 7 | Louisville at Syracuse |
Syracuse +15.5 | Lost by 8 | WON | 52¢ | 0¢ | +90% | +0.91u |
| Week 7 | Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe |
UL Monroe +15.5 | Lost by 24 | LOST | 55¢ | +2¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Ohio at Sacramento State |
Sacramento State +15.5 | Lost by 41 | LOST | 46¢ | −4¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Utah at Colorado |
Colorado +14.5 | Lost by 3 | WON | 48¢ | +1¢ | +108% | +1.08u |
| Week 7 | New Mexico at Hawai'i |
Hawai'i +14.5 | Lost by 11 | WON | 52¢ | −1¢ | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 6 | North Dakota at Northern Iowa |
Northern Iowa +14 | Won by 7 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 5 | Montana State at Idaho |
Idaho +14.5 | Won by 1 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 5 | Ohio State at Iowa |
Iowa +14.5 | Lost by 17 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Miami at Clemson |
Clemson +15.5 | Lost by 28 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Miami at Wake Forest |
Wake Forest +20.5 | Lost by 13 | WON | 32¢ | +1¢ | +212% | +2.12u |
| Week 3 | Georgia at Arkansas |
Arkansas +24.5 | Lost by 28 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Villanova at Long Island University |
Long Island University +18.5 | Lost by 4 | WON | 50¢ | −1¢ | +98% | +0.98u |
| Week 3 | Harvard at New Hampshire |
New Hampshire +14.5 | Lost by 24 | LOST | 50¢ | +1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Yale at Holy Cross |
Holy Cross +19.5 | Lost by 10 | WON | 54¢ | 0¢ | +87% | +0.87u |
| Week 3 | USC at Rutgers |
Rutgers +21.5 | Lost by 7 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 3 | Northern Arizona at Utah Tech |
Utah Tech +15.5 | Lost by 12 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 3 | BYU at Colorado State |
Colorado State +17.5 | Lost by 18 | LOST | 54¢ | 0¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | North Dakota State at Sacramento State |
Sacramento State +25.5 | Lost by 21 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 1 |   Southern Illinois at Samford |
Samford +20.5 | Lost by 4 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 1 |  Miami at Stanford |
Stanford +24.5 | Lost by 39 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |   Lehigh at Georgetown |
Georgetown +21.5 | Lost by 31 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Villanova at Bucknell |
Bucknell +26.5 | Lost by 1 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 1 |   Richmond at Howard |
Howard +14.5 | Lost by 7 | WON | 52¢ | — | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 1 |   Illinois State at Western Illinois |
Western Illinois +20.5 | Lost by 31 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 10–17
- P&L
- −$313
- ROI
- −23.2%
- Bets
- 27
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, Big road favorites →. Estimated at 1 − price: these bets were placed before the other side's price was recorded.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded betsSmall samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line2 of 27 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 30The numberBeat by 30
WonLostInside 3 points: 0 won, 2 lost
By spread
SpreadBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
3 or less
—
—
—
—
3.5–7
—
—
—
—
7.5–13.5
—
—
—
—
14 and up
27
17–10
63%
+24%
+6.51
Grouped by the size of the spread.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
1
1–0
100%
+212%
+2.12
45–49¢
2
1–1
50%
+4%
+0.08
50–54¢
22
13–9
59%
+14%
+2.98
55¢ and up
2
2–0
100%
+66%
+1.32
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
8
5–3
62%
+14%
+1.09
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
5
4–1
80%
+54%
+2.69
Saturday 7 PM or later
10
5–5
50%
−2%
−0.24
Not a Saturday
4
3–1
75%
+74%
+2.97
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
4
2–2
50%
+30%
+1.21
Even with the close
3
2–1
67%
+26%
+0.77
Worse than the close
6
5–1
83%
+52%
+3.15
No close
14
8–6
57%
+10%
+1.38
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Mountain West
2
2–0
100%
+92%
+1.85
ACC
4
2–2
50%
+26%
+1.03
Big 12
2
1–1
50%
+4%
+0.08
Big Ten
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
MAC
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Pac-12
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
SEC
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Sun Belt
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Wake Forest
1
1–0
100%
+212%
+2.12
Villanova
2
2–0
100%
+95%
+1.90
North Dakota
2
2–0
100%
+92%
+1.85
Colorado
1
1–0
100%
+108%
+1.08
Utah
1
1–0
100%
+108%
+1.08
Long Island University
1
1–0
100%
+98%
+0.98
Bucknell
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Hawai'i
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Howard
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Idaho
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Montana State
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
New Mexico
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
North Dakota State
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Northern Arizona
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Northern Iowa
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Richmond
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Rutgers
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Samford
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
South Dakota State
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Southern Illinois
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
USC
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Utah Tech
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Louisville
1
1–0
100%
+91%
+0.91
Syracuse
1
1–0
100%
+91%
+0.91
Holy Cross
1
1–0
100%
+87%
+0.87
Yale
1
1–0
100%
+87%
+0.87
Austin Peay
1
1–0
100%
+68%
+0.68
West Georgia
1
1–0
100%
+68%
+0.68
McNeese
1
1–0
100%
+64%
+0.64
Northwestern State
1
1–0
100%
+64%
+0.64
Miami
3
1–2
33%
+4%
+0.12
Sacramento State
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Arkansas
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
BYU
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Clemson
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Colorado State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Georgetown
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Georgia
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Harvard
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Illinois State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Iowa
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Lehigh
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Louisiana Tech
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
New Hampshire
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Ohio
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Ohio State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Stanford
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
UL Monroe
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Western Illinois
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The home team is a 14-point underdog or bigger, any game Novig prices.
- 2
Bet
Home team.
Full-game spread, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before kickoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
College football, on Novig.
History
Every record is a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on the price history Sports Index keeps (Novig's lines, sportsbook lines where Novig had none, with asks estimated where Novig's weren't recorded) and graded on the final score.
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