Big road favorites
FREETake the road team against the spread when it is favored by 14 or more. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: Big home dogs →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- −$378
- Bets
- 31
- Record
- 12–19
- ROI
- −24.4%
- CLV
- −0.4¢
- Max drawdown
- −$423
- Streak
- L2
- Open
- 0
Big road favorites
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Week 8
UPCOMING
Tennessee Tech at The Citadel
QUALIFIES
Week 7
−34%
McNeese at Northwestern State
LOST
−100%
South Dakota State at North Dakota
LOST
−100%
Austin Peay at West Georgia
LOST
−100%
Stephen F. Austin at Nicholls
WON
+94%
South Dakota at Murray State
LOST
−100%
Montana State at Eastern Washington
WON
+94%
Mercer at Samford
LOST
−100%
Louisville at Syracuse
LOST
−100%
Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe
WON
+117%
Ohio at Sacramento State
WON
+84%
Utah at Colorado
LOST
−100%
New Mexico at Hawai'i
LOST
−100%
Week 6
−100%
North Dakota at Northern Iowa
LOST
−100%
Week 3
−35%
Miami at Wake Forest
LOST
−100%
Georgia at Arkansas
WON
+94%
Villanova at Long Island University
LOST
−100%
Harvard at New Hampshire
WON
+94%
Yale at Holy Cross
LOST
−100%
USC at Rutgers
LOST
−100%
Northern Arizona at Utah Tech
LOST
−100%
BYU at Colorado State
WON
+94%
North Dakota State at Sacramento State
LOST
−100%
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Margin | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Tennessee Tech at The Citadel |
Tennessee Tech −17.5 | QUALIFIES | 53¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | McNeese at Northwestern State |
McNeese −21.5 | Won by 3 | LOST | 52¢ | −1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | South Dakota State at North Dakota |
South Dakota State −14.5 | Lost by 11 | LOST | 50¢ | 0¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Austin Peay at West Georgia |
Austin Peay −18.5 | Won by 14 | LOST | 46¢ | 0¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Stephen F. Austin at Nicholls |
Stephen F. Austin −22.5 | Won by 56 | WON | 52¢ | 0¢ | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 7 | South Dakota at Murray State |
South Dakota −28.5 | Won by 28 | LOST | 52¢ | −1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Montana State at Eastern Washington |
Montana State −20.5 | Won by 36 | WON | 52¢ | −4¢ | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 7 | Mercer at Samford |
Mercer −14 | Won by 10 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Louisville at Syracuse |
Louisville −14.5 | Won by 8 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Louisiana Tech at UL Monroe |
Louisiana Tech −15.5 | Won by 24 | WON | 46¢ | −2¢ | +117% | +1.17u |
| Week 7 | Ohio at Sacramento State |
Ohio −15.5 | Won by 41 | WON | 55¢ | +4¢ | +84% | +0.83u |
| Week 7 | Utah at Colorado |
Utah −14.5 | Won by 3 | LOST | 53¢ | −1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | New Mexico at Hawai'i |
New Mexico −14.5 | Won by 11 | LOST | 49¢ | +1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | North Dakota at Northern Iowa |
North Dakota −14 | Lost by 7 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 |  Montana State at Idaho |
Montana State −14.5 | Lost by 1 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 |   Ohio State at Iowa |
Ohio State −14.5 | Won by 17 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 5 |  Miami at Clemson |
Miami −15.5 | Won by 28 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 | Miami at Wake Forest |
Miami −20.5 | Won by 13 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Georgia at Arkansas |
Georgia −24.5 | Won by 28 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 | Villanova at Long Island University |
Villanova −18.5 | Won by 4 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Harvard at New Hampshire |
Harvard −14.5 | Won by 24 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 | Yale at Holy Cross |
Yale −19.5 | Won by 10 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | USC at Rutgers |
USC −21.5 | Won by 7 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Northern Arizona at Utah Tech |
Northern Arizona −15.5 | Won by 12 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | BYU at Colorado State |
BYU −17.5 | Won by 18 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 | North Dakota State at Sacramento State |
North Dakota State −25.5 | Won by 21 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Southern Illinois at Samford |
Southern Illinois −20.5 | Won by 4 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Miami at Stanford |
Miami −24.5 | Won by 39 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 |   Lehigh at Georgetown |
Lehigh −21.5 | Won by 31 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 1 |  Villanova at Bucknell |
Villanova −26.5 | Won by 1 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |   Richmond at Howard |
Richmond −14.5 | Won by 7 | LOST | 52¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |   Illinois State at Western Illinois |
Illinois State −20.5 | Won by 31 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 19–12
- P&L
- +$396
- ROI
- +25.5%
- Bets
- 31
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, Big home dogs →. Estimated at 1 − price: these bets were placed before the other side's price was recorded.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded betsSmall samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line3 of 31 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 35The numberBeat by 35
WonLostInside 3 points: 2 won, 1 lost
By spread
SpreadBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
3 or less
—
—
—
—
3.5–7
—
—
—
—
7.5–13.5
—
—
—
—
14 and up
31
12–19
39%
−24%
−7.57
Grouped by the size of the spread.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
—
—
—
—
45–49¢
4
1–3
25%
−46%
−1.83
50–54¢
27
11–16
41%
−21%
−5.75
55¢ and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
8
3–5
38%
−27%
−2.17
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
7
2–5
29%
−45%
−3.12
Saturday 7 PM or later
12
6–6
50%
−2%
−0.22
Not a Saturday
4
1–3
25%
−52%
−2.06
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
2
1–1
50%
−8%
−0.17
Even with the close
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.06
Worse than the close
5
2–3
40%
−18%
−0.88
No close
21
8–13
38%
−26%
−5.46
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Sun Belt
1
1–0
100%
+117%
+1.17
Pac-12
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
SEC
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Big 12
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Big Ten
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
ACC
4
2–2
50%
−3%
−0.12
MAC
2
1–1
50%
−8%
−0.17
Mountain West
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Louisiana Tech
1
1–0
100%
+117%
+1.17
UL Monroe
1
1–0
100%
+117%
+1.17
Arkansas
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
BYU
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Clemson
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Colorado State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Eastern Washington
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Georgetown
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Georgia
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Harvard
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Illinois State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Iowa
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Lehigh
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
New Hampshire
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Nicholls
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Ohio State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Stanford
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Stephen F. Austin
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Western Illinois
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Miami
3
2–1
67%
+29%
+0.88
Ohio
1
1–0
100%
+83%
+0.83
Montana State
2
1–1
50%
−3%
−0.06
Sacramento State
2
1–1
50%
−8%
−0.17
Austin Peay
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Bucknell
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Colorado
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Hawai'i
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Holy Cross
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Howard
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Idaho
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Long Island University
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Louisville
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
McNeese
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Mercer
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Murray State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
New Mexico
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
North Dakota State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Northern Arizona
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Northern Iowa
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Northwestern State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Richmond
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Rutgers
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
South Dakota
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
South Dakota State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Southern Illinois
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Syracuse
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
USC
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Utah
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Utah Tech
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Wake Forest
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
West Georgia
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Yale
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
North Dakota
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Samford
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Villanova
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The home team is a 14-point underdog or bigger, any game Novig prices.
- 2
Bet
Road team.
Full-game spread, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before kickoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
College football, on Novig.
History
Every record is a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on the price history Sports Index keeps (Novig's lines, sportsbook lines where Novig had none, with asks estimated where Novig's weren't recorded) and graded on the final score.
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