Low total overs
FREETake the over when the total is under 45. One unit per game at the Novig price. The other side: Low total unders →
Sports Index
0 following
- Season PnL
- −$106
- Bets
- 37
- Record
- 18–19
- ROI
- −5.7%
- CLV
- +0.2¢
- Max drawdown
- −$397
- Streak
- L6
- Open
- 0
Low total overs
Account value
Charting
Chart settingsKept in this browser
Measure
Time axis
Game days in order, with the breaks between them shortened so the games keep the width.
Show on the chart
Gain/loss shadingGreen above where it started, red below
No-game breaksHatch the stretches with no games between game days
Week linesA divider where each week starts
Open positionsHow many bets were open, under the chart
Trade markersWhere each bet was placed, and where it settled
SmoothingZoomed out, nearby points share their last value. Off draws every point.
Placed
Open
Won
Lost
BetsHow it's calculated
Week 8
−100%
Air Force at Wyoming
LOST
−100%
Stonehill at Long Island University
QUALIFIES
Indiana at Michigan
QUALIFIES
Akron at Kent State
QUALIFIES
Miami (OH) at Central Michigan
QUALIFIES
Colgate at Richmond
QUALIFIES
Samford at Furman
QUALIFIES
Princeton at Harvard
QUALIFIES
Iowa at Minnesota
QUALIFIES
Charleston Southern at Tennessee State
QUALIFIES
Bowling Green at Buffalo
QUALIFIES
Houston Christian at Lamar
QUALIFIES
UT Rio Grande Valley at Central Arkansas
QUALIFIES
North Dakota State at New Mexico
QUALIFIES
Week 7
−21%
Florida International at Jacksonville State
WON
+96%
Pittsburgh at Boston College
WON
+92%
Hampton at Sacred Heart
WON
+92%
Brown at Princeton
LOST
−100%
Massachusetts at Buffalo
WON
+89%
Bryant at Maine
LOST
−100%
Merrimack at Dartmouth
WON
+80%
Georgetown at Colgate
LOST
−100%
Western Michigan at Central Michigan
LOST
−100%
Kentucky at Oklahoma
LOST
−100%
Wisconsin at UCLA
LOST
−100%
New Mexico at Hawai'i
LOST
−100%
Week 6
+18%
Columbia at Marist
WON
+96%
Iowa at Washington
WON
+96%
Washington State at Utah State
LOST
−100%
Texas at Oklahoma
WON
+96%
Furman at Tennessee Tech
LOST
−100%
Week 5
−51%
Michigan at Minnesota
LOST
−100%
Wyoming at North Dakota State
LOST
−100%
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)
WON
+96%
Sacred Heart at Maine
LOST
−100%
North Carolina A&T at Bryant
WON
+96%
Gardner-Webb at Charleston Southern
LOST
−100%
Colgate at Harvard
LOST
−100%
Fresno State at Washington State
LOST
−100%
Week 3
+51%
Bowling Green at Iowa State
WON
+96%
North Carolina at Clemson
WON
+87%
Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin
WON
+96%
Wyoming at Central Michigan
LOST
−100%
Princeton at Bryant
LOST
−100%
VMI at Davidson
WON
+96%
Morgan State at Towson
WON
+94%
Wofford at Chattanooga
WON
+96%
Western Michigan at Rice
WON
+96%
All bets
| Week | Game | Pick | Total | Result | Entry | CLV | Return | Units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | Air Force at Wyoming |
Over 44.5 | 42 | LOST | 56¢ | −1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 8 | Stonehill at Long Island University |
Over 37.5 | QUALIFIES | 50¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Indiana at Michigan |
Over 41.5 | QUALIFIES | 54¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Akron at Kent State |
Over 44.5 | QUALIFIES | 60¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Miami (OH) at Central Michigan |
Over 40.5 | QUALIFIES | 50¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Colgate at Richmond |
Over 41.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Samford at Furman |
Over 42.5 | QUALIFIES | 52¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Princeton at Harvard |
Over 39.5 | QUALIFIES | 53¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Iowa at Minnesota |
Over 41.5 | QUALIFIES | 48¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Charleston Southern at Tennessee State |
Over 42.5 | QUALIFIES | 48¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Bowling Green at Buffalo |
Over 44.5 | QUALIFIES | 49¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | Houston Christian at Lamar |
Over 43.5 | QUALIFIES | 62¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | UT Rio Grande Valley at Central Arkansas |
Over 44.5 | QUALIFIES | 61¢ | — | |||
| Week 8 | North Dakota State at New Mexico |
Over 42.5 | QUALIFIES | 43¢ | — | |||
| Week 7 | Florida International at Jacksonville State |
Over 43.5 | 51 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 7 | Pittsburgh at Boston College |
Over 42.5 | 48 | WON | 52¢ | 0¢ | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 7 | Hampton at Sacred Heart |
Over 44.5 | 56 | WON | 52¢ | −3¢ | +92% | +0.92u |
| Week 7 | Brown at Princeton |
Over 39.5 | 26 | LOST | 52¢ | +3¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Massachusetts at Buffalo |
Over 41.5 | 43 | WON | 53¢ | +2¢ | +89% | +0.89u |
| Week 7 | Bryant at Maine |
Over 44.5 | 31 | LOST | 55¢ | −1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Merrimack at Dartmouth |
Over 43.5 | 48 | WON | 56¢ | −1¢ | +80% | +0.80u |
| Week 7 | Georgetown at Colgate |
Over 44.5 | 44 | LOST | 52¢ | −1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Western Michigan at Central Michigan |
Over 42.5 | 35 | LOST | 50¢ | 0¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Kentucky at Oklahoma |
Over 43.5 | 34 | LOST | 52¢ | +2¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | Wisconsin at UCLA |
Over 42.5 | 24 | LOST | 51¢ | +2¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 7 | New Mexico at Hawai'i |
Over 44.5 | 31 | LOST | 56¢ | −1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Columbia at Marist |
Over 43.5 | 69 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 6 | Iowa at Washington |
Over 40.5 | 65 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 6 | Washington State at Utah State |
Over 44 | 33 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 6 | Texas at Oklahoma |
Over 41.5 | 51 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 6 | Furman at Tennessee Tech |
Over 44.5 | 35 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Michigan at Minnesota |
Over 43.5 | 34 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Wyoming at North Dakota State |
Over 44.5 | 28 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Bowling Green at Miami (OH) |
Over 41.5 | 44 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 5 | Sacred Heart at Maine |
Over 44.5 | 40 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | North Carolina A&T at Bryant |
Over 44.5 | 61 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 5 | Gardner-Webb at Charleston Southern |
Over 44.5 | 22 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Colgate at Harvard |
Over 37.5 | 37 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 5 | Fresno State at Washington State |
Over 44.5 | 32 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Bowling Green at Iowa State |
Over 43.5 | 62 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 3 | North Carolina at Clemson |
Over 44.5 | 48 | WON | 54¢ | +1¢ | +87% | +0.87u |
| Week 3 | Eastern Michigan at Wisconsin |
Over 44.5 | 64 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 3 | Wyoming at Central Michigan |
Over 40.5 | 34 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | Princeton at Bryant |
Over 44.5 | 35 | LOST | 48¢ | +1¢ | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 3 | VMI at Davidson |
Over 42.5 | 51 | WON | 51¢ | −1¢ | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 3 | Morgan State at Towson |
Over 44.5 | 67 | WON | 52¢ | — | +94% | +0.94u |
| Week 3 | Wofford at Chattanooga |
Over 42.5 | 48 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 3 | Western Michigan at Rice |
Over 43.5 | 49 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
| Week 1 |  Northern Illinois at Iowa |
Over 44.5 | 40 | LOST | 51¢ | — | −100% | −1.00u |
| Week 1 |  Richmond at Howard |
Over 43.5 | 49 | WON | 51¢ | — | +96% | +0.96u |
The other side
Every graded bet taken the other way, in hindsight- Record
- 19–18
- P&L
- +$117
- ROI
- +6.3%
- Bets
- 37
Not part of the record. It's tracked as its own strategy, Low total unders →. 1 graded at the other side's recorded Novig price, 36 estimated at 1 − price.
What stands out
Groups with 3+ graded betsSmall samples. Each one opens its card below.
Close calls
Final against the line5 of 37 bets landed within 3 points of the number
Missed by 30The numberBeat by 30
WonLostInside 3 points: 2 won, 3 lost
By total
TotalBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45
37
18–19
49%
−6%
−2.12
45–52.5
—
—
—
—
53–59.5
—
—
—
—
60 and up
—
—
—
—
Grouped by the total the bet took.
By entry price
Entry priceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Under 45¢
—
—
—
—
45–49¢
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
50–54¢
32
17–15
53%
+3%
+1.08
55¢ and up
4
1–3
25%
−55%
−2.20
Grouped by the Novig price paid at entry.
By kickoff
KickoffBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Saturday before 3 PM
15
8–7
53%
+2%
+0.29
Saturday 3 to 7 PM
11
6–5
55%
+7%
+0.75
Saturday 7 PM or later
6
1–5
17%
−67%
−4.04
Not a Saturday
5
3–2
60%
+18%
+0.88
Grouped by kickoff, Eastern time.
By closing line
Closing lineBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Beat the close
6
2–4
33%
−37%
−2.24
Even with the close
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Worse than the close
7
3–4
43%
−19%
−1.31
No close
22
12–10
55%
+7%
+1.51
Grouped by the entry price against Novig's last price before kickoff.
By conference
ConferenceBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
MAC
7
5–2
71%
+39%
+2.73
ACC
2
2–0
100%
+90%
+1.79
American
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Big 12
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Conference USA
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
SEC
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Big Ten
5
2–3
40%
−22%
−1.08
Pac-12
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Mountain West
5
0–5
0%
−100%
−5.00
A game counts once for each conference in it.
By team
TeamBetsRecordWin rateROIUnits
Bowling Green
2
2–0
100%
+96%
+1.92
Chattanooga
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Columbia
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Davidson
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Eastern Michigan
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Florida International
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Howard
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Iowa State
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Jacksonville State
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Marist
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Miami (OH)
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
North Carolina A&T
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Rice
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Richmond
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Texas
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
VMI
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Washington
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Wofford
1
1–0
100%
+96%
+0.96
Morgan State
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Towson
1
1–0
100%
+94%
+0.94
Boston College
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Hampton
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Pittsburgh
1
1–0
100%
+92%
+0.92
Buffalo
1
1–0
100%
+89%
+0.89
Massachusetts
1
1–0
100%
+89%
+0.89
Clemson
1
1–0
100%
+87%
+0.87
North Carolina
1
1–0
100%
+87%
+0.87
Dartmouth
1
1–0
100%
+80%
+0.80
Merrimack
1
1–0
100%
+80%
+0.80
Iowa
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Oklahoma
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Western Michigan
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Wisconsin
2
1–1
50%
−2%
−0.04
Sacred Heart
2
1–1
50%
−4%
−0.08
Air Force
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Brown
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Charleston Southern
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Fresno State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Furman
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Gardner-Webb
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Georgetown
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Harvard
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Hawai'i
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Kentucky
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Michigan
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Minnesota
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
New Mexico
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
North Dakota State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Northern Illinois
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Tennessee Tech
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
UCLA
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Utah State
1
0–1
0%
−100%
−1.00
Bryant
3
1–2
33%
−35%
−1.04
Central Michigan
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Colgate
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Maine
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Princeton
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Washington State
2
0–2
0%
−100%
−2.00
Wyoming
3
0–3
0%
−100%
−3.00
A game counts for both teams in it.
How it bets
- 1
Qualifies
The Novig total is under 45, any game.
- 2
Bet
Over.
Full-game total, Novig main line.
- 3
Placed
60 minutes before kickoff, at the Novig ask price.
The rule is checked again then. A game that no longer qualifies gets no bet.
- 4
Stake
1 unit, flat. A win pays (1 − price) ÷ price units.
- 5
Graded
Final score from the game page. A game not finished within 7 days voids.
No bet when
Novig has no offer on that side, or its prices are more than 45 minutes old.
League
College football, on Novig.
History
Every record is a paper simulation from the start of the season: the rule run on the price history Sports Index keeps (Novig's lines, sportsbook lines where Novig had none, with asks estimated where Novig's weren't recorded) and graded on the final score.
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